Exactly 5 years ago, in December 2018, I had written a piece “Pappu can Dance Wallah”. It was inspired by the 2008 Bollywood song “Pappu Can’t Dance Salaa” from the movie “Jaane Tu Ya Jaane Naa” starring Genelia D’souza (now Deshmukh). For years Rahul Gandhi (RG) had been disparagingly referred to as Pappu (the simpleton).
However, when he led his party to victory in three out of five State assembly elections in 2018 the Pappu epithet was discarded. Political commentator Ashutosh had said “R.I.P. Pappu”. Raj Thackeray went one step further to say that now Pappu meant “Param Pujya” (most respected). That is why I wrote that Pappu could now dance.
As events unfold, all of us writers and critics are obliged to revise our opinions. After the Congress’ parliamentary poll debacle in May 2014 I had written “Why Rahul Gandhi Should Quit?” as he had then led the charge. Some one had to take the flak. As Caiphas the High Priest had said of Jesus, “Don’t you realise that it is for you to let one man die for the people, instead of having the whole nation destroyed?” (Jn 11:50). Somebody had to be the sacrificial lamb. I had therefore suggested that RG take a two year sabbatical outside the country, meet up with his then girlfriend, and get married. He would be out of the hair of the Congress, who could then look for another heir to the throne.
In 2009 columnist Shobha De had described RG as a dimpled darling, because of his fresh and innocent looks. I saw the media coverage of his road shows that had attracted huge crowds. When his personal attraction could not attract votes I had then said that the dimples were now looking like pimples!
I was never enamoured of RG. He was a child of privilege (sahabzaade), not a street smart man of the people. His language and thought processes were pathetic. In one of his speeches he had said that the poor need a “farsh” that literally means floor. What he probably meant is that they needed a platform. On another occasion he had said that poverty was a “soch” (thought). Again, what he probably meant was that it was a state of mind. I give these classic examples to highlight his inadequacy of language. In contrast, Naveen Patnaik, who has been Chief Minister of Orissa State since … (How long ago was that?) cannot speak his native Odiya language. Yet he is an excellent communicator, as evidenced by repeated electoral victories.
RG’s choice of words is equally pathetic. In 2014 he harped on sashaktikaran (women’s empowerment). It became the stuff of jokes and pokes. Ironically, today all parties have been wooing women voters. The pollsters did their arithmetic factoring in the woman voter and her predilections.
In 2019 RG again miscalculated by harping on the Rafaele deal and asking the crowds to repeat, “Chowkidar chor hai”. It backfired. He faced criminal charges for making fun of the Modi surname. But he didn’t learn any lessons. This year he fell into the Panauti (ill omen) trap; post India’s World Cup ODI loss in Modi’s presence at the stadium named after him. Every time that he attacks Modi personally, the latter has converted adversity into opportunity.
Though RG officially resigned from the presidentship of his party he still appears to be the de facto numero uno. At meetings he is seated at the right hand of the Father (oops – the President, Mallikarjun Kharge). So he has to take the major responsibility for his party’s debacle. If he shirks it, it will be like Atlas shrugging, causing a major earthquake in his party.
Nevertheless, it would not be fair to blame everything on him. The Congress’ demise began before 2014. I put the year at 2012 when a new President of the Republic had to be chosen. I had then proposed to Sonia Gandhi and her son that they elevate the sagacious, but aging, Manmohan Singh as the President and make Pranab Mukherjee the Prime Minister. This was anathema to the Gandhis as they felt insecure with an intelligent and independent mind like Mukherjee’s. They made the cardinal error of making him the President.
Mukhjerjee was the party’s best floor manager in the Lok Sabha and had a good rapport with various opposition leaders. He was replaced by Kamal Nath who had no answer to Anna Hazare, Arvind Kejriwal and the Nirbhaya case. That set the tone for the party’s debacle in 2014, a body blow from which it is yet to recover. (After I had finished writing this I read about Sharmista, Mukherjee’s daughter and former Congress spokesperson, and her forthcoming book “In Pranab, My Father: A Daughter Remembers”. She avers that her father told her in no uncertain terms that Sonia would never make him the Prime Minister).
Coming to 2023, I was following various opinion polls in the run up to the elections, followed by the exit polls in the evening of 30th November. Since the India Today Axis Survey claimed to have a 94% strike rate, I chose to follow this. Given below is a chart of the exit poll figures and the actual outcome.
| S. No | State | Party | Exit Poll | Seats Won |
| 1 | Rajasthan | BJP | 80-100 | 115 |
| Congress | 86-106 | 69 | ||
| 2 | Madhya Pradesh | BJP | 140-162 | 163 |
| Congress | 68-90 | 66 | ||
| 3 | Chhatisgarh | BJP | 36-46 | 54 |
| Congress | 40-50 | 35 | ||
| 4 | Telengana | BJP | 4-8 | 8 |
| Congress | 63-73 | 64 | ||
| BRS | 34-44 | 39 | ||
| 5 | Mizoram | BJP | NA | 2 |
| Congress | 2-4 | 1 | ||
| ZPM | 28-35 | 27 | ||
| MNF | 3-7 | 10 |
The figures were spot on for M.P., Telengana and Mizoram, where there were clear mandates. However, in the tight races in Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh, the Congress was given an edge but ended up with mud on its face. To be fair, Rajdeep Sardesai kept saying that his own poll was wrong and Rajasthan would go to the BJP. His gut feeling prevailed over the pollsters. Pradeep Gupta of Axis claimed that his prognosis was based on the benefits that the Congress had given to women, so a higher percentage would vote for it. It didn’t work. The post mortem for Chhatisgarh showed that the tribals swung en masse from the Congress to the BJP. Was this because Narendra Modi made a staggering announcement for their benefit in neighbouring Jharkhand, just a few days before the polls, at a commemoration for tribal icon Birsa Munda?
There could be other reasons that played on the psyche of the voters. In Rajasthan the BJP repeatedly raked up the killing of a Hindu tailor, Kanhaiya Lal by so-called Islamic terrorists. In Chhatisgarh they raised the bogey of tribal conversions to Christianity. Communal polarisation is the BJP’s trump card that never fails to ace the opposition.
Others have blamed the Electronic Voting Machines for the drastic change from the exit polls. But that doesn’t account for 12 ministers from Shivraj Singh’s cabinet losing in M.P. That included hot head Narottam Misra who wanted Shahrukh Khan’s movie “Pathan” banned because of Deepika Padukone’s saffron looking bikini.
For those who have written off the Congress there is a silver lining from the Election Commission of India. The Congress actually polled more votes in these 5 States than the BJP. The former got 4,92,24,000 to the latter’s 4,81,68,687, a difference of 10,55,313. Even in Mizoram, where the Congress won just one seat to the BJP’s two, the former garnered 1,46,113 (20.82%) of the votes, while the latter got just 35,524 (5.06%). Though the BJP got double the number of seats, the Congress got 4 times their number of votes.
Is there not a lesson for the Congress in these figures? They must go back to the drawing board and figure this out. Are they spreading themselves out too thin, instead of focussing on a fewer number of seats? They also need to anticipate what their opponent is planning, which is part of election strategy.
What happened to the I.N.D.I.A. block? It was foolish of the Congress to fight its alliance partners in the States and claim to collaborate with them for the parliamentary elections. Voters are not fools. They can read between the lines. This was the time to invite empathetic leaders like Mamata Banerji, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, Hemant Soren, M.K. Stalin, Sharad Pawar, Farooq Abdullah and Akhilesh Yadav. Had they organised even one joint meeting in the 5 State capitals it would have sent a strong message of unity of purpose to the electorate. Kanhaiya Kumar is probably the best Hindi orator in the Congress. He was not to be seen.
It is often claimed that the Gandhi family is the binding glue in the party, else it will become unstuck. The facts are to the contrary. A host of leaders, both young and old, have quit the party in the Gandhi era. Some have formed their own parties and become Chief Ministers in their own right. Count Mamata, Jagan Reddy, Sharad Pawar, Conrad Sangma and Lalduhoma, the latest entrant.
Others have joined the BJP or other parties – Capt Amarinder Singh, Gulam Nabi Azad, Kapil Sibal, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Jitin Prasad, Jaiveer Shergill, Priyanka Chaturvedi etc.
Are the Gandhis then the glue or the panauti? When confronted with RG’s incompetence and incoherence, some andh bhakts eyes light up at the mention of his sister Priyanka. Can the Congress not look beyond Rahul and Priyanka (R&P)? It is not fair to write off somebody in public life, especially when they are down. Nevertheless, the writing is on the wall. If indeed the Congress wants to give Modi a run for his (or electoral bond) money, it must jettison its excess baggage. This is why I repeat, “Is it R.I.P. 4 R&P”?
DECEMBER 2023
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